Friday, March 20, 2009

Will the Raptors hit the jackpot?



Its mid March and I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the Raptors will not make the playoffs this season. Bold statement I know. (eyes rolling)
With the Madness in full swing its got me wondering.
The Raps will be a lottery team this season. I wonder how good of a pick they can get?
A look at the NBA bottom feeders and the Raps sit tied with Golden State with the seventh worst record in the league.

Lets for chance say they pick as low as fifth or as high as eighth. NBA mock drafts all over the web have different opinions on who will go where. Besides Blake Griffin being the consensus number one in pretty much every mock draft, the rest of the field is tough to call.
One mock draft has U Conn's 7'3 block machine Hasheem Thabeet going as low as second and another as high as fifth. This guy will be a legit center in the NBA. A rarity in the L now a days. To think a can't miss like Thabeet could slip to fifth means a few things.
This is going to be a stacked draft. Or these people don't have a clue what they're talking about.
I'm gonna say its a bit of both.

The 2009 NBA draft class is quite a unique group. One of the main reasons. Its not 100% who exactly is going to declare. Two guys who some feel could change the outlook of the draft are both playing pro internationally
Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio has apparently declared according to "sources close to him". This kid is being coined as the second coming of "Pistol" Pete Maravich who some believe could be the real number one pick in the draft. I'm not sure about the Maravich comparisons. I think its more because he looks like the Pistol. He is however a real deal point guard who should be may very good in the L. He was fantastic in the Beijing Olympics as Jose Calderon's back up. He's also only 19 and is already in his fourth season as a pro in Europe. This kid is a can't miss prospect who if declares, will go in the top five.

The other key factor in this seasons draft is Brandon Jennings. The Oak Hill High School phenom choose not to go to Arizona, but instead went to Italy to play pro in the Italian League. This kid has tons of potential, and could be the next Allen Iverson or the next Sebastian Telfair. His game needs work, especially on the defensive end. His offense has apparently taken a back seat in Italy and word is he's been working hard on his D all season. Many NBA scouts will say he's just too skilled to pass up. So was Telfair. Would be very interesting to see if Jennings' stays in Europe to work on his game, or if he'll chase the money to come to the NBA.

Their are a handful of freshmen that may or may not declare. The likes of Al-Farouq Aminu, Willie Warren, Jeff Teague, Greg Monroe, Demar Derozan, Tyreke Evans & Jrue Holiday are potential lottery picks. Its a wonder whether these kids are ready for the show or could benefit from a few more years in college. Thats the gamble of coming out too early.

So much is uncertain in regards to whom the Raptors could get or what they will do with the pick. A look at what they need is a better way to approach it.

The five, four, three and one positions on the Raps are solid but not concrete. Thats Bargnani, Bosh, Marion and Calderon.
Outside of Bargnani, the rest are expendable. Even Bosh. I know many will disagree with me on Bargnani. When you got a seven footer that shoots threes and drives like a guard, you just don't get rid of them. He's been taking awhile, but this year has proved that Bargs is going to be a really good player, maybe even an all star one day. He may never be the MVP like Dirk Nowitzki who he's consistently been compared too, but his skill set and size are just too rare to throw away.
Marion is at the end of his contract and may or may not resign in T.O.
Since their days in Phoenix, The Matrix and GM Bryan Colangelo are still very close. I think Marion could do well staying with the club. As long as he doesn't break the bank, he's worth it. I like the up tempo energy Marion thrives on, and think the Raps could benefit from playing that style. Plus he can rebound and plays D. Something the Raptors know very little about.

Bosh and Calderon are the pieces that need to be decided upon. Bosh has one year left on his contract and will draw a huge line up of teams wanting his services when he becomes free agent. With the way Bosh has played this season, is it fair to say the Raps should look at dealing CB4?
He is the best player on the team that is apparent. Is he the guy to carry the team and get them back to playoffs? Tough to say.
The real question. Does he still want to be in Toronto?

Calderon is another tough call. He is not 100% this year and its showing. Some nights it feels as though he's too concerned with his assist to turnover ratio, and that he just refuses to make that tough pass in transition. Thats where having Marion is kind of pointless. He thrives in the open floor. If you can't push the ball in the open court the team misses out on easy baskets.
I think Calderon is safe. The point guard position in Toronto has zero depth. Unless a deal comes round with a solid PG in the mix, he stays. Draft day deal for Rubio perhaps? I don't think so.

The glaring hole for the Raps comes at the two guard. Anthony Parker is at best a role player in the NBA. Not a starter.
He would be great coming off the bench. I like his game, but he's way too inconsistent. In the NBA the two guard position has some of the deadliest players. Kobe. D Wade. Vince Carter to name a few. All have their way with Parker.
There are a few really good two guards in this years draft. One that comes to mind is James Harden in Arizona State. A bit undersized at a generous 6'5, but at a solid 220 pounds he can be a handful for some guards. Many compare him to a thicker Manu Ginobili. Would be very tough to get him later then the fifth pick unfortunately.

My gut tells me that Colangelo will wait to see how high of a pick the Raps get before he makes a decision on what to do with the future make up of the club. In essence this season could be a blessing in disguise. The start of this season the Raps looked like they should be a playoff team. The reality is this. The true colors of the Raps were shown this year. They don't have the depth or a strong enough starting five to win in the L.
Getting a top ten lottery may just be the essential piece BC needs to get this team back to where they belong. That pick packaged with Bosh could be very enticing for many GMs around the league. Moving Bosh could be the best thing Colangelo can do for this team. It could also be a huge gamble that could hurt the future of the NBA in Toronto and in Canada.



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